Eurocontrol has recently published the “Climate Change Risks for European Aviation Summary Report” (https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2021-09/eurocontrol-study-climate-change-risk-european-aviation-summary-report-2021.pdf) stating that “To prepare for the potential impacts, it is vital that the European aviation sector understands the character and scale of the risks that climate change poses to it, and acts in a proportionate and timely manner to adapt and build resilience”.
One of the topics addressed is the “Impact of changes in storm patterns and intensity on flight operations” because “convection is responsible for a large proportion of the major en-route ATFM delay days”.
As a conclusion of this analisys … “Considering the changes in weather pattern occurrence projected by climate models out to 2050, a possible shift towards more frequent settled weather regimes across northern Europe in summer is expected. This suggests that weather patterns for impactful summer storms may become less common but does not necessarily mean that there will be less Significant Weather Days (SWDs) overall.” & “Due to the projected changes in intense convective activity (used as a proxy for storm activity) horizontal flight inefficiency could increase to 4.0%-4.2% by 2050. This was measured across all days when major storms accounted for at least 50% of delay and is based on data for all countries projected to be impacted by a major storm. This suggests a 0.5% increase in horizontal flight inefficiency compared to 2013- 2019, or around an additional 5,700tCO2 per year.”