Eurocontrol has recently published the “Climate Change Risks for European Aviation Summary Report” (https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2021-09/eurocontrol-study-climate-change-risk-european-aviation-summary-report-2021.pdf) stating that “To prepare for the potential impacts, it is vital that the European aviation sector understands the character and scale of the risks that climate change poses to it, and acts in a proportionate and timely manner to adapt and build resilience”.

One of the topics addressed is the “short-term weather impacts on European aviation” because “the impacts of weather can be disruptive and costly for the European aviation sector. A clear link between disruptive weather and delays is apparent, yet the exact sensitivity of operations to different weather events and between regions is not as well understood. Given that scientific literature suggests that certain weather events could change in frequency, intensity, or both, in the future, it was important to assess the current relationship and short-term outlook for the impact of weather on flight operations before exploring the longer term trends associated with climate change”.

The conclusions are “There is no evidence for significant changes in these weather patterns over the next five years. This suggests that, while weather events will continue to cause ATFM delays across the European aviation network, the large-scale weather setups for these events are not expected to change in frequency due to climate change in the short term. This does not mean that localised weather events that have the potential to generate severe disruption will not occur. Over the next five years, the role of year-to-year natural variability is considerable, and uncertainty due to this is expected to dominate any trends related to climate change. This does not mean that changes will not occur out to more distant time horizons, as explored in the rest of the study”.